The PA Races At This Point

Figures. The first post of the new year, and the first one in a month, and it's on the same day that basically everything in it changed. As I was typing on Tuesday, all sorts of people started resigning and retiring and screwing up the entire national picture.

It mostly changed in two states - Connecticut and Colorado. In Colorado, Governor Bill Ritter (D) decided not to run for re-election, and then Secretary of the Interior Salazar also decided not to run, leaving the field clear for Denver mayor John Hickenlooper, who will run against former Rep. Scott McInnis. This is actually good for the Dems, because Ritter - once a promising candidate for nationwide office - was not doing well, and was probably going to lose. Hickenlooper, a fabulously popular mayor (and SJS favorite because of his name and the fact that he founded Wynkoop Brewing Company), will be a tougher beat for McInnis.

In Connecticut, longtime Senator and longshot presidential candidate Chris Dodd (D) also announced his retirement. Dodd had been embattled with various nebulous scandals (much like what his father went through), and has become something of an undeserving scapegoat for many. He was in trouble in the polls, but he will be replaced by CT Attorney General Dick Blumenthal, who will be the favorite. Incidentally, as Chris Cillizza points out, this very much affects the 2012 re-election hopes of one Joseph McJerkfacestein Lieberman (little known fact: He actually is from a rare clan of Irish Jews who were renowned for voting only for industries who donated their political campaigns).

Also, South Dakota Senator Brian Dorgan (D) announced his retirement, meaning the Dems will probably lose his Senate seat.

So, long and short: Two potential pickups for the GOP got a lot harder, and one got easier. If you missed the Daily Show rundown, the media largely portrayed this as a crisis for Democrats. I have no idea why.

Right, onto the best political state of 2010, Pennsylvania.

Governor
It's a crowded field that got a little less crowded yesterday.

On the Dem side, the favorite is Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (who has raised about $6 million), accompanied by a crowd that includes former Senate candidate Joe Hoeffel, Auditor General Jack Wagner, businessman Tom Knox, and Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty. Of those, I feel like Hoeffel is the main challenge to Onorato, but with a field this scattered, it's impossible to know anything. I expect Doherty and Wagner will be the first to drop out, due mostly to how damn much this race is going to cost.

The GOP primary is generally assumed to be Attorney General Tom Corbett's race to lose. His main challenge (and the GOP's best candidate, in my opinion) was Rep. Jim Gerlach, until he dropped out yesterday to coast to re-election in Berks County one more time. This makes the party happy, because it basically clears the field and keeps a House seat in their hands (and they were never real thrilled that Gerlach was in the mix), but it is good news for the Dems, too. I have always doubted Corbett's statewide appeal in the general (he's been a pretty crappy, borderline corrupt AG), and Gerlach represented a well-funded tough, smart campaigner if he got through the primary.

Senate
The Democratic primary - between former Republican incumbent Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak, is down to #3 on Chris Cillizza's list of the best primaries, because Texas and Florida are getting even chippier, but it'll still be a beauty. Sestak is positioned as a more liberal, more local, less Washington player, but Specter has fought off tough challenges before, and PA loves him. The winner will take on Club for Greed leader Pat Toomey. He basically believes that anything that makes rich people richer is awesome, especially if it's lower taxes and less regulation. He will get to run as an outsider (because he keeps losing elections), and have him competitive and even ahead of Specter.

I remain skeptical. This is a millionaire running during a recession, and the thought of him working hard enough to win in this state is just not something I see happening. Plus, Specter's beaten Toomey before, and that was in a Republican primary. I know Rick Santorum won with basically the same issue profile, but he was a hard-working PA boy who ran mostly on social issues and local stuff, not corporate tax cuts amidst 11% unemployment. And he had a square jaw and looked like that not-too-bright quarterback in high school. Toomey looks like this:

I continue to see Toomey losing by double digits, but I'm in the minority.