The special - to replace now-Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand - is in one of those weird districts where lots of people are Republicans, but it's hard to know what that means. It's a true swing district that Bush and Obama both won and seems to trade Reps back and forth. The election tomorrow was at one point looking like it belonged to Republican state minority leader Scott Tedisco. The Democrats nominated Scott Murphy, presumably because New York is really trailing Pennsylvania when it comes to number of congressmen with the last name of "Murphy".
This election has of course been touted as a referendum on Obama, the Republican Party, and the state of the Universe, but it's hard to know how seriously to take that. Yes, it's a swing district, and yes, it looks like Murphy has come from behind, but it seems an awfully small sample size to mean anything.
Let's say Murphy does pull it out and the Dems keep the seat. The analysis will be: Obama's popular, the Republican brand is not in good shape, etc. But we already knew that, and it was the same when Tedisco was leading. Let's say Tedisco wins. Will that suddenly mean that Obama is unpopular and that the GOP is the preferred party of Americans? Or does it just mean that a good candidate beat another one?
I think you can guess what side I'm on.
Some links if you're bored:
- The Journal reports on a movement to lose the electoral college.
- Israel's second-place party is the opposition, but Labor moves to the right as a part of the coalition.
- Freakonomics gives some props to a guy who got it right when no one was listening.
- And Arlen Specter is in real trouble. Quinnippiac has him down 14 to Toomey, the state party wants nothing to do with open primaries, and he's burned his bridges when it comes to going Dem with his anti-union Card Check decision. I'm not seeing a path to victory for him right now, but he's been down before. Maybe he'll pull an independent run, but if so he'll have to not run in the primary.
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