Looking Forward

Well, so much for Pitt's #1 ranking. Can't win a championship in January, anyway, I suppose. And the Steelers are going to the Super Bowl, so it's all okay.

DC is, as you might expect, quickly becoming a madhouse, as every blogger, reporter and person who doesn't work on Tuesday descends on the capital. My metrocard has a picture of Obama's face on it. I was at a bar last night that is featuring Chicago-style hot dogs and Tusker beer (from Kenya). At least it's a boon for the district economy, I suppose.

A reading of my old Google Reader stuff revealed an interesting focus on the GOP Senate hopes for 2010. The reality is that, while the GOP is due for an election cycle to go their way (we historically always follow "wave" elections with swings in the other direction), lots of things are stacking up against them. First, you've got retirements. Four prominent Republican senators are retiring in swing states that are trending bluer. That does not help, and the money it costs to defend those seats will make it much harder for the GOP to go after Dem-held seats in other states. Second, you've still got the problem that the Republican brand now remains one of ideological extremism and hostility toward minority groups. Tom Davis, the moderate and reasonably awesome Virginia Republican who led successful RNCC efforts in 2000 and 2006, released a memo blasting his party for just this reason. About a week from now, the RNC will choose a new chairman from six guys who all claim to be very conservative. While Chris Cillizza is sort of correct that Saul Anuzis and Michael Steele are the less ideological of the group, it's not really encouraging when a guy like Steele counts as a moderate. All of which leads to a Cillizza Line of senate races likely to change hands, where the top 5 are all currently Republican-held, and only two of the 10 are held by Dems. One can quibble with the rankings in specific, but the fact is that the field remains grim for the GOP.

One bright spot for them, of course, is Chris Matthews' decision not to run for the Pennsylvania senate seat held by Arlen Specter. Without the profile of Matthews, the race will now be its usual mundane self, where Specter should hold off whoever challenges him by a few points. Unless, of course, someone runs at him in the primary.

There will be 34 (!) gubernatorial mansions up for election in 2010, though, and given the census and subsequent redistricting, that is likely to be the story. Republicans have made it clear that their rebuilding effort for the party starts not with re-evaluating whether their platform makes sense and resonates with the American people, but with winning governerships in 2010 and gerrymandering the hell out of everything. It's not a bad strategy.

Some links:

• Freakonomics guy Steven Dubner did a post on Pittsburgh. Best line: "David Streitfeld’s interesting article about Pittsburgh in The Times on Wednesday, meanwhile, about the city’s conversion from steel town to service town, failed to mention the Steelers once. This is nearly impossible when writing an article about Pittsburgh; this is like writing a term paper without using “the.” While I was personally disappointed (yeah, I’m a fan), I congratulate Streitfeld on his feat."
• Tim McNulty of the Post-Gazette reports on how some of us who hoped for transit funding for things like railroads will be disappointed.
• The Hawk recalls a different inauguration, from not that long ago.