Prime Time is Obama Time

At 8 p.m. this evening, 37 minutes before the Phillies take the field for the second half of their potentially Series-clinching game, Barack Obama will talk to the American public for half an hour on all major networks save ABC. The newspapers are calling it an "infomercial," and saying it targets the everyman. McCain and other Republicans are attacking Obama, calling it presumptuous and arrogant and oversaturation. But they kind of have to say that, since McCain doesn't have the money to respond in kind, and even Republican strategists agree that - even if it is overkill - it's still a huge advantage for Obama.

Pollster.com continues to show solidifying stability in the race for Obama. The notable exception - today - is Pennsylvania, where there appears to be some slight narrowing. But that doesn't mean McCain is suddenly within the margins. Obama remains up by 8 or 9 points, and over 50%, which keeps it a very high liklihood that Obama will win (98%, according to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com).

The main point of this post, though, is to refer you to a fantastic piece by the Politico editors about why McCain is "getting hosed" among the press, which he once referred to as "his base." Thoughtful, whimsical and self-deprecating, this editorial examines Politico and the greater media, and explains why bias among reporters is rarely to blame for anything. in the news The fact is, in this instance, that McCain is losing. Writing pieces about how even the race is would be not only irresponsible, it would be inaccurate. When it comes to the fact that McCain has been criticized more for negative ads than Obama, the editors are candid that, on one front, this is not fair. Obama runs a lot of negative ads, too, and he has gotten less criticism than McCain from the press. But there is an additional element, as well: McCain denounced these same tactics harshly when they were used against him 8 years ago. Hypocrisy or evolution, it makes the story more compelling than one about Obama, who has always (read: for the last 14 months) combined soaring rhetoric with sharp elbows. A more compelling story will be reported more. Likewise, the fact that McCain used to be an open, accessible, unconventional candidate and is now, well, not, makes his transformation interesting to reporters, many of whom saw him in both states. One can say the reporting is uneven or even unfair, but it was hardly unforseeable.

The best exposition in the editorial is about the major driver of stories being reporter boredom. This is absolutely true. The one unstoppable force of political journalism is monotony; reporters want a new story, and so they will find one. Is it bias? Maybe a certain type of it, but not an uneven one. Anyway, the story is great and you should read it.

Aside from that, there are few major changes. Georgia, Mississippi and Kentucky all have Senate races where powerful and senior Republicans are in dead heats with challengers, but remain slightly ahead. Alaska's Ted Stevens lost his corruption trial, so he'll probably lose to Mark Begich, which I've been thinking was going to happen anyway. He says he's innocent and he'll keep fighting. Good luck with that.

McCain's pollster is on MSNBC now sounding very confident that he thinks the race is "functionally tied," by which he means within the margins. He says his thinking is based on an expected break among undecideds toward the Republican party, which he says historically happens. Neat idea. Shame pollster.com beat you to it, and you're wrong. But neat idea. As I've written at length in some navel-gazing posts, it is entirely possible he's right and this is way closer than we think. It is, however, not possible that there is independent data to back him up.

Come to think of it, it's been strange how little campaign news there's been. Since Powell's endorsement, there has been nothing to qualify as even close to the media-mandated October surprise. And when an endorsement is your biggest news of an election October, you have no big news. I don't know if the Obama thing tonight will change that, but it seems to me unlikely. If this ends the way it looks right now, McCain supporters will have a strong case to make that the tanking economy just made it impossible for their candidate to ever have a fighting chance.