Perhaps McCain Thought He Was Playing Scrabble, And Wanted to Avoid a Proper Noun

Well, the second debate was supposed to be a town hall, but mostly it was the same joint press conference, except with tired-looking people on all sides. Most of the pundits so far have McCain losing, with the reasoning being that he needed a win and got a draw at best (also, the polls seems to indicate a 10-point difference in Obama's favor with respect to debate performance). He looked strong at moments, and had one great moment where he connected with a questioner who was a chief petty officer. Obama, on the other hand, was solid throughout, and seemed less prone to rambling than his opponent. While he had no great knockout punches, but I grow ever more admiring of his ability to counterpunch when his opponent overreaches. In this debate, it took the form of McCain once again saying that Obama didn't understand, and Obama came back and delivered a stinging line about not understanding how McCain could say "next stop, Baghdad" when Afghanistan was still very much a work in progress.

The weirdest moment of the night came when McCain inexplicably pointed behind him at Obama and referred the Senator from Illinois and Democratic nominee for president who currently has an 8-point national lead on McCain as "that one." There has been a lot of punditry on the comment, and nobody - including this one - has any idea what the hell that was. Was it an insult? Was it racial? Was it dismissive of youth? It was reminiscent of George Allen's "macaca" moment, where the implications were undefinable but still seemed vaguely awful, though this appears to lack the weight of that campaign-killing utterance. And then McCain quite obviously avoided shaking Obama's hand, exacerbating whatever it was that "that one" meant.

I think, more than anything, the "that one" comment was indicative of a McCain who all night appeared like he was having even less fun than the audience. It was reminiscent of some of those Hillary days during the primary where you could just tell that she was frustrated with the success of a young upstart whose credentials were inferior to hers but whose campaign was beating hers up and down the floor. McCain was supposed to be in his element last night, with a town hall format, but he looked unhappy and it showed in his dismissive and rude attitude toward his opponent. If the voters care about what Peggy Noonan has dubbed "Patriotic Grace," then McCain had a bad night, because we saw a man who was graceless, condescending and sarcastic. Once again, it was a reminder of how far we've come; the man who seemed our only real hope of a civilized, thoughtful, honorable campaign now won't say his opponent's name or even shake his hand.

Not that I can blame Mac for being unhappy. The market took another 500-point dive yesterday, and it's down another 200 as of this writing today, though a treasury yield-fueled rebound seems to be in the works. All this focus on the collapsing economy is not good for Republicans in general or McCain in particular, who has not been convincing when it comes to his competence on economic matters. At the end of the night, NBC political director Chuck Todd said he thought the market would matter more than the debate, and there's no question who it hurts more. Beyond that, though, the polling numbers are just bad for McCain right now. Pollster.com's sensitive trend has every close state moving farther into Obama territory, with even Florida at a 5-point clip for Barack now. The electoral college, if you believe the polls, is potentially a landslide. His attempt to singlehandedly save the economy resulted in transparent politicization of an important issue, utter failure to get his party to vote for his bill, and then laughable self-congratulation. The initial flurry over Sarah Palin has changed from excitement to ridicule at a choice that is now obviously political, since she is so clearly bringing nothing to the governing table. He wants to be president maybe more than anyone ever has, and he is clearly growing to resent the man who is running against him,

Another things seemed odd last night. As Obama railed against spending increases, McCain last night mentioned another $300 billion bailout to buy bad mortgages. This is after the Bush administration pushed through a $700 billion bailout for failing corporations. If you are a true conservative, then you don't believe that the government should nationalize bad mortgages. There just is no such thing as a fiscal conservative on the national stage anymore, and even the traditional ideas of the way the parties behave has become completely inverted. Just remember: A free market means lots of people and corporations fail. If your Congressman is only for the free market when people win, then he's for Soviet-style corruption, not a free anything.

Another thought I had last night, as the Dow is surges, approaching even on the day, was that Gwen Ifill should host every debate. And that, if Chuck Todd doesn't get to host Meet the Press next, she should. She is just fantastic, and especially compared to the inept non-management of the old white triumvirate of Brokaw, Lehrer and Schieffer (who gets the last debate next week), she seems engaging and full of life. I mean, if she can keep Joe Biden and Sarah Palin reasonably on point, doesn't that demonstrate a rare enough savvy to keep her on the job until further notice? Seriously, she's a fantastic journalist, a thoughtful analyst, and a moderator who doesn't look tired of being there. I have a fever, and the only prescription is more Gwen Ifill.

One last thought: I remain less convinced of Obama's success than many others, and that has mostly to do with the Bradley Effect. Perhaps I am actually too afraid to believe that we are ready to elect a black man, and don't want to risk catastrophic depression by believing it until it happens, but whatever my reasons, it is important to remember that black candidates lose 7-10 points from polls to voting booths, every single time. Well, not in 2003 for Bobby Jindal or 2006 for Harold Ford Jr., but it does happen. Obama looks dominant right now, but subtract 7 points from his lead in every state, and he loses. My point is not to suggest that the American people are a bunch of abject racists, but that polls turn and no one has voted yet. If you're an Obama supporter, this election has a month left, and there is a lot of work to do. If you're a McCainiac, there are lots of things that happen between now and early November. Trends are big for me, and those are all going Obama right now, but I suspect we've got a turn or two left in this road.